Sea Level Rise Primer
This sub-project of the LNRCCP focuses on sea level rise in the Arabian Gulf due to climate change. As originally designed, it was a regional study focusing on a quantitative assessment of the impact of sea level rise on the extent of land inundation. Ideally, the results of the study on regional ocean modeling of the Arabian Gulf under climate change would have served as a direct input. However, the regional ocean modeling study was able to directly estimate only the dynamic sea level rise component - the smallest of three contributors to sea level rise - and found only up to 10 cm of dynamic sea level rise by the late 21st century. Hence, the original option of using these outputs to directly model sea level rise impacts on Arabian Gulf countries would necessarily lead to negligible impacts from climate change, a misleading result at best. Hence, alternative approaches to the study were explored. In the end, it was decided to redesign the sub-project to focus on the development of a sea level rise primer whose purpose is to improve the awareness of policymakers in the Arabian Gulf region generally, and the UAE specifically, on how to begin addressing the prospects of future sea level rise, given the current limitations in regional ocean modeling. This represents a non-quantitative approach to the issue of sea level rise focusing on a discussion of the range of assessment and planning issues in a Sea Level Rise Primer, a brief document aimed at an audience of non-experts who nevertheless are responsible for promoting climate change adaptation within government agencies and/or promoting dialogue among civil society groups. The goal of the primer is to be an interface between sea level rise, a topic that is highly technical and multi-faceted, and decision-makers and other stakeholders in the region who are interested in coastal development and protection.
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